Longtime lurker, first-time poster to this sub. I’m fully cognizant that this post may not age particularly well next week, or in the weeks hence (especially in light of recent news), but whatever; I have no shame putting myself out there. This is why God gave us anonymous Reddit handles.
One: It’s an election year. Trump absolutely won’t let this market fail. By hook or crook, he will 100% do everything within his power (and not in his power) to prop up the market. (Including working Powell like a sock puppet.)
Two: Investors will eventually realize/recollect what I still remember from two weeks ago: It’s a classic chase for yield. As expensive as they’d gotten, as recently as two weeks ago, US equities still remained a bastion of growth compared to virtually everywhere else in the world. And that was before COVID-19. If the rest of the world was already teetering on the precipice of blazing-dumpster-firedom before the Coronavirus outbreak, now the full-on zombie apocalypse has actually arrived, where do you think all of those pension funds/hedge funds/etc are going to get their returns for 2020? (They need to be able to somehow justify charging those fat fees!) Italy? The UK? Germany? China? America has now literally become the only game in town. The market is forward-looking; after the initial panic settles, where will that chase for yield go?
Game on. I’m all in. Last week hedge funds suddenly woke up and remembered why they existed. But eventually, when the inevitable rebound happens, I expect Big Algo to launch it into the stratosphere. It shall be thunderous unlike any man has ever witnessed before. I obviously have no idea where the exact bottom is, but I’ve learned that precisely timing it is a fool’s errand. (If you’re able to do it, then good on you. I am happy for you; I am simply not as skilled as you are.) The only way (for me at least) is to ride it out. Assuming you’re not facing a margin call, etc, my humble suggestion is to just take a vacation and not even look at what’s going on. Check back in a week or month or two.
(Disclaimer: I’m personally currently long AMD and MU– I believe in the Big Data Story! PS. AMD’s Investor Day is March 5! Am expecting great things!)
PPS. All that said, I’m fully aware there are tons of people thinking the worst is yet to come. This clip from WSB is one of the funniest things I’ve seen in a long time.